Increased Crude Output in Nigeria: What It Means for OPEC Members
Nigeria’s crude oil production has experienced a notable increase in recent months. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s output rose by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December 2024, contributing to a total production of 1.8 million bpd.
This uptick is attributed to enhanced security measures and strategic initiatives aimed at combating oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Bala Wunti, Chief Upstream Investment Officer at NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), has been instrumental in implementing a security architecture that integrates advanced surveillance technologies and community-based initiatives. These efforts have significantly improved Nigeria’s crude oil production, with output recovering from historic lows to over 1.24 million bpd by late 2022.
Despite these gains, Nigeria’s production remains below its OPEC quota. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, noted that the removal of regulatory bottlenecks and collaboration among stakeholders have contributed to the production increase. However, challenges persist, including illegal connections to pipelines, which have led to oil spills and losses. In 2023, 119 out of 139 spill incidents were caused by illegal connections. Through daily inspections and the removal of 675 illegal connections in 2023, progress has been made, but these challenges continue to impact production levels.
The Nigerian government has set ambitious targets to further boost production. The 2025 budget projects an oil production level of 2.06 million bpd, with an average crude oil price assumption of $75 per barrel. Senator Lokpobiri expressed confidence in achieving and potentially surpassing this target by the end of 2024, citing ongoing efforts to upscale production to 2 million bpd. As of December 2024, current production stands at approximately 1.8 million bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).