China’s Population Falls for Fourth Consecutive Year Despite Government Efforts to Encourage More Births
Beijing, China — China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, official data shows, underscoring the ongoing demographic challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy despite extensive government efforts to persuade couples to have more children.
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the total population dropped by approximately 3.39 million in 2025, bringing the country’s population to about 1.405 billion people. The decline marks a continuation of a downward trend that began in 2022.
The birth rate plunged to a historic low, with just 7.92 million births recorded in 2025 — a 17 percent drop from the 9.54 million births in 2024. At the same time, the number of deaths increased to 11.31 million, the highest figure in decades, further widening the gap between births and deaths.
China’s leadership has introduced a series of policies aimed at reversing decades of population decline, launching incentives designed to encourage childbirth. These measures include cash subsidies for families, expanded childcare support, enhanced healthcare coverage for pregnant women, and reforms intended to reduce financial burdens associated with raising children.
Despite these efforts, the measures have so far failed to reverse the broader trend. Analysts say the deep-rooted impact of historical population controls, particularly the one-child policy — which was in force from 1980 until being phased out between 2015 and 2021 — continues to shape attitudes toward family size.
Demographers and social scientists attribute the ongoing decline to a combination of economic and cultural factors. High housing costs, costly childcare, and stagnant incomes have made potential parents reluctant to have children. In urban areas especially, many young adults cite the high cost of living and intense pressure to provide for future families as key reasons for delaying or forgoing parenthood.
Marriage rates in China — traditionally a precursor to childbirth — also dropped sharply in recent years, with a record low number of couples registering marriages in 2024. While recent administrative changes have made it easier to marry by removing residency restrictions, the longer-term decline in marriages remains a demographic concern.
The demographic shift toward an older population is another element exacerbating China’s challenges. More than 23 percent of the population is now aged 60 and above, placing increasing pressure on pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and social support mechanisms. Experts warn that this ageing trend could constrain economic growth and make it difficult to maintain a robust workforce in the decades ahead.
The shrinking labour force also poses risks to China’s broader economic strategy, which relies on a balance of consumer demand and productivity to sustain growth.
While there are indications that some policy changes — such as making childcare more affordable and removing certain barriers to family formation — may encourage a modest uptick in some population metrics, experts caution that these moves are unlikely to immediately halt the decline. Structural socio-economic challenges and long-standing societal norms may mean that China’s population could continue to shrink before stabilizing at a much smaller size than in previous decades.
For now, policymakers are grappling with how to marry short-term measures with long-term structural reforms to address one of the most significant demographic shifts in China’s modern history.
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