Nigeria at risk after Iran conflict, warns Professor Femi Otubanjo
A senior scholar of international relations has sounded a stark warning that Nigeria could be vulnerable to global geopolitical pressures in the aftermath of the escalating conflict between Iran, United States, and Israel — stressing that states such as Cuba and South Africa may be targeted next, and that Nigeria may find itself in a similar position if it is “not lucky.” The insight was offered by Femi Otubanjo, a research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, in remarks that have drawn attention across diplomatic and strategic circles.
Professor Otubanjo’s comments were made in light of the ongoing Middle East conflict, sparked by recent military strikes and retaliatory actions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Observers around the world have warned of potential fallout from the conflict, not only in the immediate region but also farther afield, as global powers assert their influence and reactions spread through international alliances.
“The situation unfolding with Iran and the Western alliance is not confined to that region alone,” Otubanjo stated, suggesting that geopolitical fault lines are widening. He pointed to Cuba and South Africa as nations that have previously found themselves scrutinised or pressured by powerful states during periods of heightened global confrontation, adding that if Nigeria is “not lucky,” it too could find itself in the crosshairs of geopolitical manoeuvring.
While the professor did not specify the exact nature of the risk that Nigeria might face, his warning underscores longstanding concerns about how global conflicts can have ripple effects far beyond their immediate theatres. Political analysts say that, in an interconnected world, wars involving major powers tend to trigger diplomatic, economic, and strategic realignments that may drag neutral or non‑aligned nations into broader geopolitical dynamics — sometimes unintentionally.
Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, holds significant geopolitical weight on the continent. It is also a member of various international forums and has increasingly been part of global diplomatic engagements, such as its partnership in the BRICS grouping of emerging economies. This position highlights its potential strategic importance in global alignments and makes the prospect of spillover from broader conflicts a matter of serious concern for policymakers.
Experts say that the global clash involving Iran and the United States has already had tangible effects on countries far from the battlefield. For instance, rising crude oil prices — driven by Middle East instability — have impacted the Nigerian economy, where oil revenue is central to foreign exchange earnings and government revenue. Economists note that such geopolitical risks can have both positive and negative consequences for oil‑dependent economies like Nigeria’s, including short‑term fiscal gains but long‑term volatility.
Professor Otubanjo’s warning aligns with broader conversations among security analysts who believe that global conflicts involving major powers can inadvertently create zones of geopolitical tension that affect non‑combatant nations. For Nigeria, the concern is not only diplomatic vulnerability but also the risk that external conflict dynamics could be imported into the domestic sphere, potentially straining national cohesion and security if not carefully managed.
Indeed, Nigeria’s internal security apparatus has already issued advisories aimed at ensuring the country is not destabilised by external geopolitical developments. The Nigeria Police Force recently placed the nation on heightened alert to prevent any fallout from international conflicts from sparking unrest domestically, emphasising that foreign conflicts should not be allowed to play out on Nigerian soil.
The professor’s comments also come at a time when the Federal Government has issued security advisories to Nigerians residing in Iran and neighbouring Gulf states, urging vigilance amid volatile global tensions and military confrontations that could escalate or expand beyond the Middle East.
For Nigeria’s foreign policy elite, Otubanjo’s warning may serve as a reminder of the delicate balance needed in international relations — particularly for countries that are not direct participants in conflicts but have strategic significance due to their economic or political weight. His message implicitly stresses that diplomatic engagement, national security preparedness, and economic resilience must be strengthened to mitigate risks posed by distant but potentially disruptive global conflicts.
If Nigeria hopes to avoid the geopolitical pressures that have historically been felt by other nations during periods of major international conflict, analysts say, it must continue to pursue nuanced foreign policy strategies and remain vigilant against external influences that could threaten its stability. The world remains in a state of flux, and the repercussions of the Iran conflict may yet unfold in ways that reshape global alignments — with far‑reaching implications for nations like Nigeria.
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